Let me first of all nail my colours to the mast. I do not believe the human race has a future on this planet and maybe the planet itself, if we follow the tenets of a "laissez-faire" capitalist economic model. I believe that capitalism and overuse of the planet's resources are inextricably linked. Therefore, for me personally, it is not possible for me to support any political party that espouses unfettered capitalism. Equally, I believe strongly in democracy and would prefer to win the argument through sound reasoning and not direct or terrorist action. 

If I have to put a "Capital P" into party politics, that makes me a social democrat someone who believes in a left of centre model. Thus I find it extremely difficult at this time, that I would support a Conservative Party for the next Government and I am not overkeen on any Party that does not espouse the social democrat beliefs I hold dear.

It is clear to me that the majority of the country currently do not care for a Conservative Government and are determined to change the colour of the rosette (as I like to put it) that marks out the country's politics. The problem is, if not blue, which colour shall it be - red, orange, green or even turquoise or purple.

We live in the Central Devon Constituency, currently represented by the Conservative Mel Stride, who is also, currently, a Government Minister. In common with a lot of his colleagues, he no doubt fears for his seat at this time. I wanted to know if this was a genuine fear that he had, that he might be unseated. Unfortunately or fortunately, I think he has less to worry about than some of his colleagues around the South West.

What the results from the recent ballot for Police and Crime Commissioner for Devon and Cornwall demonstrate, was the danger of the vote being split between the two oppostion Parties, standing at that election - Labour and Liberal Democrat. Alison Hernandez, for the Conservatives, scored 132,000 votes while Steve Lodge (LibDem) and Daniel Steel (Labour) polled over 170,000 votes between them.

I do not like straight, first past the post, elections, in any event, but with this type of election - PCC or Mayor - there is not a lot one can do about it. However, at National level and until there is proper proportional representation, it pays to have a strong third, fourth and so on Party in Parliament to act as a foil against overweening ambitions.

At th end of the day, it is we, the people, who are important. It is democracy and our democratic institutions that set us apart from the dictatorial powers all around the world, such as Russia, China and North Korea. Equally two Party politics is not democracy either as the United States amply demonstrates! Whoever wins on July 4th and forms the next Government, the most important victors must be the British public.

This means I believe in Tactical Voting, not just to oust one Party from power and give the same power to another party but to ensure that the real winner is democracy. That people consider their involvement in democracy is meaningful and they get the result they desire. 

Central Devon is a large rural Constituency and now the boundaries have been changed, it has over 73,000 electors and stretches from Hatherleigh in the north, through Crediton brushing the west of Exeter before covering enough wards on and south of Dartmoor (such as Ashburton, Bu8ckfastleigh and Chudleigh) to make up the numbers. I would guess, that to travel by car from one end of the constituency to the other would take over an hour.

This means that no Candidate at this coming election will be capable of meeting all their electors personally. Their electors will be relying on social media, the internet, television, news media and leaflets for the information about which way to vote. 

If, as the national polls predict, the British public are minded to oust the Conservatives at this election, the question then arises as to which candidates would be best placed to achieve that result. This is of course known as a process of tactical voting. Of course, all political parties have their core members, who will never vote for any other colour than that which they were born to, grew up with or became involved with, at an early age. I respect such people and honour the fact that their aspirations and a national Party are intrinsically entwined. This is why I have a great deal of time for Jeremy Corbyn. I would never vote for him, as there are aspects of his policies that worry me witless but I respect his conviction and his honesty. 

If, say, each major English national Party (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green) can count today on between a 5% and 15% core vote. I reckon that about 45% of the public already have their minds made up who they are going to vote for. But what about the rest - the ubiquitous floating voters? How will they vote, as their votes will decide the election (and always have done and always will as long as democracy exists). 

They are going to basing their decisions on what other people tell them to do. Thus tactical voting for them is no problem. 

I have been doing a lot of analysis into the presentation of tactical voting on the internet and basically, the presentation falls into two categories currently. There are couple of websites like Electoral Calculus which present the facts on a Constituency by Constituency basis. Over the past week or so, I have exchanged a number of emails with Martin Baxter of E.C. to understand how they arrive at their predictions. 

They believe that the majority of voters in Central Devon will (not should) vote Labour at the general election and according to them, Mel Stride will be unseated.

Earlier in this article, I pointed out that in the PCC ballot, that did not prove the case. The vote was split between Labour and LibDem and Alison Hernandez sneaked through the middle. I put that situation to Martin plus my statistics shown below but as yet, he has not changed his database entry from red to orange for this constituency.

Now I want to share with you another important point and an important set of statistics.

If all that mattered as far as tactical voting was concerned, was national politics, then one might predict that most seats in the West Country will be won by Labour Candidates. In practice, Electoral Calculus doesn't think so. It acknowledges the fact that the Liberal Democrats are very strong on the ground in the West Country, have had some remarkable by-election wins such as Somerton and Frome and Tiverton and are either well represented or control every local authority in the West. 

Practicalities dictate for Electoral Calculus that Liberal Democrate parliamentary candidate are likely to win throughout Somerset, Dorset, most of Devon and in Cornwall. Why therefore does, Central Devon stand out like a sore thumb as the only predicted Labour gain in the area. As far as I am concerned, Martin Baxter, your analysis, as technical sensible as it is, makes no sense.

When we move onto the real tactical voting websites, such as Tactical.Vote, the situation gets worse and in practice becomes downright ludicrous. Tom from Tactical Vote engaged with me in what gradually became very heated exchange about the sillyness of their predictions. Basically, he said that because Labour had come second in 2019 in the old Central Devon Constituency, that was why they were advising and predicting voters to vote that way this time.

I assured him that if people blindly followed his advice and prediction, that Mel Stride would keep the seat and surely that was not what either of us wanted? His response was to accuse me of "threatening him" when all I wanted to do was expose the sillyness of their prediction.

Why would I do that? Not because I am not a Labour supporter, as he is but because supposedly we share the same aspiration for the blue rosette not to gain the day and for democracy to be the real winner.

The point I made was this:

• There are 73,135 electors in Central Devon.
• The Constituency is divided into 25 Wards (District or Borough Council seats) covering Mid Devon District Council, Teignbridge District Council and West Devon Borough Council.
• 42 Councillors are elected from those Wards

The results of the last local elections in May 2023 produced the following results -

In May 2023 - 27,000 people voted which equates to 36.8% turnout

• 37.8% of electors voted for a Liberal Democrat candidate or an independent candidate who now supports a Liberal Democrat local administration (amounting to 2.6% of the figure).
• 35.3% of electors voted for a Conservative candidate
• 17.1% voted for a Green party candidate or a green aspiration candidate (2.5% of the figure)
• 7% voted for a Labour candidate
• 2.5% voted for another party

Please understand that like all activities involving polling, I have had to use certain algorithms to cover situarion such as multi-councillor wards, not every ward contested by every political party, the involvement of independents or special local parties (such as the South Devon Alliance in Teignbridge). On the other hand I have had my results and predictions cross-checked by other experts. All feel happy with my stated results.

On the basis of everything I have learned about turnouts, just because more people vote, it does not influence the percentages. If 80% or 90% had voted, the percentages would have remained roughly the same.

I can conceive that in a General Election, that these figures will be skewed by the change of emphasis of what they are voting for. But in the final analysis what these figures clearly show which ought to be blindingly obvious to everyone .... the only serious challenger to a Tory MP in Central Devon is a person wearing an orange rosette and certainly not a red one!

Furthermore the statistics demonstrate that the Labour Party has no organisation on the ground, in the Constituency, whereas the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives have very sophisticated and active Party organisations, with the Greens not far behind.

As I write this article, what I do not understand is why both Tactical Vote and Electoral Calculus can choose to use the 2023 local results when it suits them, then ignore them elsewhere. For their predictions to have meaning, there must be consistency. Socialogically speaking, a group of electors in Crediton ought to be identical to a group of electors in Yeovil.

Therefore, I urge and implore you to think very carefully about pursuing a tactical vote based solely on these national predictions. All you will do is ensure that Mel Stride is re-elected and possibly becomes leader of his party. For another prediction I can make which I am sure you will all agree with, is that putting aside our voting traits in the West Country, a Labour Prime Minister will be taking over 10 Downing Street on July 5th (with or without some partners). As a result, Rishi Sunak will step down as party leader and a by-election in North Yorkshire will follow shortly after.

My request and prediction is obvious and straightforward. In Central Devon Constituency on July 4th, if you want to unseat Mel Stride, vote Liberal Democrat, vote for Mark Wooding.